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Athletic Club vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 21:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Fortaleza

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-114.0%0-25.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.8%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-16.3%2-22.7%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.0%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% — — —

Draw 35.2% — — —

Away win 28.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.0% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 24.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

D 35% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 15.8%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.0

Fortaleza0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.20

FORTALEZA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza (A) 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Fortaleza in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 37% chance, the draw 35% and Fortaleza 28%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Athletic Club and 0.8 for Fortaleza (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Fortaleza. This match finished 1-0.

Athletic Club vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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