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Ponte Preta vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Goias

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-112.5%0-29.3%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.1%2-16.1%2-24.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 18.9% 5.30 +17.9%

Draw 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Away win 49.2% 58.5% 1.71 -15.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 44.4% 2.25 +13.0%

Over 3.5 29.0% 23.8% 4.20 +13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Home O1.5 35.6% 22.2% 4.50 +60.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 49% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta1.0

Goias1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.56

GOIAS · PPG 1.11

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.11) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 24.5%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +17.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

Goias (A) 49.2%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 25% chance, the draw 26% and Goias 49%, so Goias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ponte Preta and 1.5 for Goias (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.11 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +60.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Ponte Preta vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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