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Criciuma vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

Criciuma

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Vila Nova

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.6%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.6%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.2%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.7%3-13.6%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 59.2% 1.69 -16.7%

Draw 27.6% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 23.2% 19.0% 5.25 +13.1%

Over 2.5 44.0% 44.4% 2.25 -1.0%

Over 3.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 41.1% 51.3% 1.95 -19.9%

Away O1.5 21.6% 21.1% 4.75 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0✓ 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma1.3

Vila Nova0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.25

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -16.7%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Vila Nova (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Vila Nova 23%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Criciuma and 0.8 for Vila Nova (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.22 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Criciuma vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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