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Sport Recife vs Operario PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

Sport Recife

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Operario PR

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.4%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.8%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.7%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.1%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 52.6% 1.90 -13.6%

Draw 26.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.5%

Away win 27.8% 25.0% 4.00 +6.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 23.8% 4.20 +13.1%

BTTS 52.6% 51.8% 1.93 +1.5%

Home O1.5 41.1% 47.6% 2.10 -13.7%

Away O1.5 30.6% 27.0% 3.70 +13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife1.4

Operario PR1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.56

OPERARIO PR · PPG 1.63

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.5%

Operario PR (A) 27.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face Operario PR in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Operario PR 28%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sport Recife and 1.0 for Operario PR (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.63 for Operario PR. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Sport Recife vs Operario PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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