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Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 20:30

Gremio

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Corinthians

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-111.4%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-17.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 38.8% 2.58 +14.5%

Draw 30.6% 33.8% 2.96 -9.4%

Away win 25.1% 34.7% 2.88 -16.6%

Over 2.5 43.0% 42.6% 2.35 +1.1%

Over 3.5 22.5% 22.2% 4.50 +0.8%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 31.2% 36.4% 2.75 -14.2%

Away O1.5 16.7% 33.3% 3.00 -29.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.5%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 11.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio1.1

Corinthians0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 2.13

CORINTHIANS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

47%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=44.4%

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +14.5%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -9.4%

Corinthians (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Corinthians 25%, so Gremio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gremio and 0.7 for Corinthians (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.88 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Gremio vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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