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Brazil - Serie A
Regular Season - 18
Arena do Grêmio· Porto Alegre
Saturday, May 30, 2026
20:30
Gremio
PPG 2.13
1-3
MISS
Corinthians
PPG 0.88
Home· +14.5%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
44.4%
Odds: 2.58
EV: +14.5%
Draw
30.6%
Odds: 2.96
EV: -9.4%
Away
25.1%
Odds: 2.88
EV: -16.6%
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
43.0%
Odds: 2.35
+1.1%
Over 3.5
22.5%
Odds: 4.50
+0.8%
BTTS
47.2%
Odds: 1.95
-8.0%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✘
2nd
1-0
✘
3rd
1-1
✘
4th
2-0
✘
5th
0-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio
1.13
Corinthians
0.73
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=44.4%