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Brazil - Serie A logo Brazil flag Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 18 Arena do Grêmio· Porto Alegre Saturday, May 30, 2026 20:30
Gremio logo Gremio PPG 2.13
1-3 MISS
Corinthians logo Corinthians PPG 0.88
Home· +14.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.4%
Odds: 2.58 EV: +14.5%
Draw 30.6%
Odds: 2.96 EV: -9.4%
Away 25.1%
Odds: 2.88 EV: -16.6%
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.0% Odds: 2.35 +1.1%
Over 3.5 22.5% Odds: 4.50 +0.8%
BTTS 47.2% Odds: 1.95 -8.0%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-0
5th 0-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Gremio
1.13
Corinthians
0.73

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=44.4%

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