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Bahia vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 20:30

Bahia

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Botafogo

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.8%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.1%1-110.3%1-27.5%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.7%3-15.3%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 52.6% 1.90 -18.9%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 35.0% 26.3% 3.80 +33.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 58.8% 1.70 +9.0%

Over 3.5 39.5% 36.4% 2.75 +8.6%

BTTS 61.0% 62.5% 1.60 -2.4%

Home O1.5 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Away O1.5 42.6% 36.4% 2.75 +17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.0%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia1.8

Botafogo1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.25

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Botafogo (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Botafogo 35%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bahia and 1.5 for Botafogo (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.22 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Bahia vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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