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Avai vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

Avai

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Criciuma

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-116.2%0-27.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.2%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.9%2-15.4%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.6%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 42.7% 2.34 -27.7%

Draw 33.8% 33.6% 2.98 +0.7%

Away win 35.2% 30.8% 3.25 +14.4%

Over 2.5 32.8% 42.6% 2.35 -22.9%

Over 3.5 18.6% 22.2% 4.50 -9.8%

BTTS 45.5% 51.8% 1.93 -12.2%

Home O1.5 19.8% 39.2% 2.55 -29.7%

Away O1.5 23.6% 30.3% 3.30 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai0.8

Criciuma0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.00

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -27.7%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +0.7%

Criciuma (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Criciuma 35%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Avai and 0.9 for Criciuma (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Avai vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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