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Flamengo vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

Flamengo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Coritiba

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.5%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.9%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 71.4% 1.40 -33.8%

Draw 24.9% 21.3% 4.70 +10.2%

Away win 27.8% 14.1% 7.10 +58.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.0%

BTTS 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Home O1.5 47.2% 65.4% 1.53 -27.8%

Away O1.5 26.2% 23.1% 4.33 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.1%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo1.6

Coritiba1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.00

CORITIBA · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -33.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +10.2%

Coritiba (A) 27.8%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +58.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Coritiba 28%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Flamengo and 1.0 for Coritiba (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.56 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Flamengo vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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