Today / Brazil - Serie A / Athletico PR vs Mirassol

Athletico PR vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

Athletico PR

PPG 2.22 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mirassol

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.4%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-111.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.2% 1.81 -5.0%

Draw 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Away win 21.7% 22.0% 4.55 -0.8%

Over 2.5 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 23.8% 4.20 +9.8%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0✓ 15.1%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletico PR1.6

Mirassol0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 2.22

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Athletico PR (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -5.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Mirassol (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletico PR face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletico PR a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Mirassol 22%, so Athletico PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athletico PR and 0.8 for Mirassol (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletico PR are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.57 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Athletico PR vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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