Today / Brazil - Serie A / Athletico PR vs Mirassol

Athletico PR vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 19:00

Athletico PR

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mirassol

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Home 54% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.4%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.1%1-111.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.8%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.2% 1.81 -5.0%

Draw 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Away win 21.7% 22.0% 4.55 -0.8%

Over 2.5 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 23.8% 4.20 +9.8%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Away O1.5 18.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0✓ 15.1%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletico PR1.6

Mirassol0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETICO PR · PPG 2.22

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Athletico PR (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -5.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Mirassol (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletico PR face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletico PR a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Mirassol 22%, so Athletico PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Athletico PR and 0.8 for Mirassol (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletico PR are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.57 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Athletico PR vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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