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D. de Belgrano vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 18:30

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

San Telmo

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.4%0-115.9%0-24.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.1%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-13.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.6%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 54.6% 1.83 -39.1%

Draw 37.8% 34.5% 2.90 +9.6%

Away win 28.9% 20.8% 4.80 +23.2%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 3.5 12.5% 20.0% 5.00 -22.5%

BTTS 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Home O1.5 15.5% 43.5% 2.30 -38.6%

Away O1.5 10.9% 20.0% 5.00 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.1%

D 38% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.4%

#2 1–0✓ 19.8%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. de Belgrano0.7

San Telmo0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.00

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

D. de Belgrano (H) 33.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -39.1%

Draw 37.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +9.6%

San Telmo (A) 28.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. de Belgrano face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. de Belgrano a 33% chance, the draw 38% and San Telmo 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for D. de Belgrano and 0.6 for San Telmo (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. de Belgrano are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.83 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-0.

D. de Belgrano vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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