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Almirante Brown vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 18:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.3%0-118.2%0-25.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-111.0%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.4%2-13.4%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.1%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%

Draw 37.1% 39.2% 2.55 -5.4%

Away win 28.4% 33.9% 2.95 -9.7%

Over 2.5 25.8% 30.8% 3.25 -9.7%

Over 3.5 12.5% 14.3% 7.00 -7.5%

BTTS 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

Home O1.5 12.4% 28.2% 3.55 -33.6%

Away O1.5 12.8% 26.7% 3.75 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

D 37% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.3%

#2 0–1 18.2%

#3 1–0 17.8%

#4 1–1✓ 11.0%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.6

Colon Santa Fe0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.67

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -6.6%

Draw 37.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -5.4%

Colon Santa Fe (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Colon Santa Fe in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 35% chance, the draw 37% and Colon Santa Fe 28%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Almirante Brown and 0.6 for Colon Santa Fe (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Colon Santa Fe. This match finished 1-1.

Almirante Brown vs Colon Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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