Today / Sweden - Superettan / Oster vs Norrby

Oster vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 15:00

Oster

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Norrby

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.2%0-27.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-17.3%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 48.8% 2.05 -34.8%

Draw 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Away win 43.1% 31.3% 3.20 +37.9%

Over 2.5 54.0% 59.9% 1.67 -9.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

BTTS 55.3% 64.5% 1.55 -14.3%

Home O1.5 33.4% 54.1% 1.85 -38.2%

Away O1.5 43.4% 41.7% 2.40 +4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.3%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oster1.2

Norrby1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTER · PPG 1.75

NORRBY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Oster (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -34.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Norrby (A) 43.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oster face Norrby in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oster a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Norrby 43%, so Norrby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Oster and 1.5 for Norrby (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oster are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Norrby. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Oster vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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