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Dugopolje vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:30

Dugopolje

PPG 2.31 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-13.1%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.0%1-17.0%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.0%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.3%3-16.2%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-16.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.1% 65.4% 1.53 +19.5%

Draw 15.4% 29.4% 3.40 -47.6%

Away win 6.5% 17.2% 5.80 -62.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 30.8% — — —

BTTS 35.6% 51.3% 1.95 -30.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.6%

H 78% / xG 2.3-0.5 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 3–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dugopolje2.3

Dubrava Zagreb0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 2.31

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 0.92

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.31), Away POOR (0.92) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dugopolje (H) 78.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +19.5%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -47.6%

Dubrava Zagreb (A) 6.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -62.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dugopolje face Dubrava Zagreb in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dugopolje a 78% chance, the draw 15% and Dubrava Zagreb 7%, so Dugopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Dugopolje and 0.5 for Dubrava Zagreb (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dugopolje are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.92 for Dubrava Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 4-3.

Dugopolje vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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