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Dubrava Zagreb vs Opatija Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:45

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

UPCOMING

Opatija

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.1%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.3%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 38.5% 2.60 +19.6%

Draw 25.1% 32.1% 3.12 -13.0%

Away win 28.9% 40.8% 2.45 -17.5%

Over 2.5 50.8% 49.0% 2.04 +3.6%

Over 3.5 30.8% 28.6% 3.50 +7.8%

BTTS 52.9% 55.9% 1.79 -5.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.3% 2.61 +4.1%

Away O1.5 29.2% 40.0% 2.50 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dubrava Zagreb1.5

Opatija1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.36

OPATIJA · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dubrava Zagreb (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +19.6%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -13.0%

Opatija (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dubrava Zagreb face Opatija in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dubrava Zagreb a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Opatija 29%, so Dubrava Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dubrava Zagreb and 1.0 for Opatija (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dubrava Zagreb are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.93 for Opatija. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +14.1%.

Dubrava Zagreb vs Opatija Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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