Today / Croatia - First NL / Orijent 1919 vs Croatia Zmijavci

Orijent 1919 vs Croatia Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Orijent 1919

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

UPCOMING

Croatia Zmijavci

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.4%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.4%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 45.0% 2.22 +0.3%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 28.9% 35.0% 2.86 -10.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.1% 2.32 -7.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 35.7% 2.80 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orijent 19191.5

Croatia Zmijavci0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIJENT 1919 · PPG 1.68

CROATIA ZMIJAVCI · PPG 1.51

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orijent 1919 (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +0.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Croatia Zmijavci (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orijent 1919 face Croatia Zmijavci in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orijent 1919 a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Croatia Zmijavci 29%, so Orijent 1919 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orijent 1919 and 0.9 for Croatia Zmijavci (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orijent 1919 are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.51 for Croatia Zmijavci. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Orijent 1919 vs Croatia Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions