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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Jadran LP Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

UPCOMING

Jadran LP

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-19.4%0-24.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-112.8%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.7%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 41.0% 2.44 +8.8%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Away win 29.0% 38.2% 2.62 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.6% 3.76 +4.8%

BTTS 51.7% 54.9% 1.82 -5.9%

Home O1.5 39.5% 39.4% 2.54 +0.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 37.3% 2.68 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.7%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bsk Bijelo Brdo1.4

Jadran LP0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BSK BIJELO BRDO · PPG 1.79

JADRAN LP · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +8.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Jadran LP (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bsk Bijelo Brdo face Jadran LP in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bsk Bijelo Brdo a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Jadran LP 29%, so Bsk Bijelo Brdo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bsk Bijelo Brdo and 0.9 for Jadran LP (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bsk Bijelo Brdo are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.75 for Jadran LP. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Jadran LP Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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