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Karlovac 1919 vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Karlovac 1919

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWD ··

UPCOMING

Hrvace

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.1%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.1%1-110.0%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-16.4%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-14.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 57.1% 1.75 +0.3%

Draw 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -15.1%

Away win 21.4% 25.6% 3.90 -9.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 34.3% 32.9% 3.04 +4.3%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.1% 1.85 +3.2%

Away O1.5 23.5% 31.1% 3.22 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlovac 19192.0

Hrvace0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLOVAC 1919 · PPG 1.92

HRVACE · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Karlovac 1919 (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.3%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.1%

Hrvace (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlovac 1919 face Hrvace in Croatia - First NL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlovac 1919 a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Hrvace 21%, so Karlovac 1919 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Karlovac 1919 and 0.8 for Hrvace (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlovac 1919 are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.70 for Hrvace. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +18.6%.

Karlovac 1919 vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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