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Guadalajara vs Salamanca UDS Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Guadalajara

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Salamanca UDS

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.4%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.2%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.4%3-15.7%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 41.7% 2.40 +25.0%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 24.0% 40.0% 2.50 -24.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 33.1% 31.8% 3.14 +3.9%

BTTS 55.0% 58.5% 1.71 -5.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 43.5% 2.30 +14.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 43.3% 2.31 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -48.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara1.7

Salamanca UDS1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA · PPG 1.50

SALAMANCA UDS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara (H) 52.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +25.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Salamanca UDS (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara face Salamanca UDS in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Salamanca UDS 24%, so Guadalajara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Guadalajara and 1.1 for Salamanca UDS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Salamanca UDS. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Guadalajara vs Salamanca UDS Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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