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Marbella vs Sanluqueño Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Marbella

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sanluqueño

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.8%0-27.9%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.7%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.3%2-16.9%2-25.6%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 47.6% 2.10 -36.2%

Draw 24.4% 30.8% 3.25 -12.4%

Away win 45.2% 33.3% 3.00 +35.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 44.4% 2.25 +21.1%

Over 3.5 33.0% 25.1% 3.98 +31.3%

BTTS 55.9% 53.2% 1.88 +5.1%

Home O1.5 33.0% 41.7% 2.40 -20.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 31.8% 3.14 +50.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 23.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marbella1.2

Sanluqueño1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBELLA · PPG 1.50

SANLUQUEÑO · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Marbella (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -36.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.4%

Sanluqueño (A) 45.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marbella face Sanluqueño in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marbella a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Sanluqueño 45%, so Sanluqueño are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Marbella and 1.6 for Sanluqueño (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marbella are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Sanluqueño. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +50.4%.

Marbella vs Sanluqueño Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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