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Sabadell vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:30

Sabadell

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDW ··

UPCOMING

Cordoba

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.1%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-112.3%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 45.5% 2.20 +8.9%

Draw 26.3% 33.3% 3.00 -12.7%

Away win 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 48.1% 2.08 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabadell1.5

Cordoba0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SABADELL · PPG 1.75

CORDOBA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sabadell (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.7%

Cordoba (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabadell face Cordoba in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabadell a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cordoba 24%, so Sabadell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sabadell and 0.9 for Cordoba (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabadell are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.18 for Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.8%.

Sabadell vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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