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Luzern B vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Luzern B

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Bulle

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.3%0-21.6%0-31.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-01.6%1-13.8%1-24.4%1-33.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.3%2-15.3%2-26.3%2-34.9%2-4+5.0%3 3-02.1%3-15.0%3-25.9%3-34.6%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-16.9%4+-28.2%4+-36.4%4+-4+6.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Draw 19.8% 24.4% 4.10 -11.3%

Away win 33.6% 40.8% 2.45 -17.7%

Over 2.5 73.7% 80.0% 1.25 -7.9%

Over 3.5 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

BTTS 65.9% 84.7% 1.18 -22.2%

Home O1.5 77.1% 70.4% 1.42 +9.5%

Away O1.5 68.2% 66.7% 1.50 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob65.9%

H 47% / xG 2.8-2.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.3%

#2 3–2 5.9%

#3 2–1 5.3%

#4 3–1 5.0%

#5 2–3✓ 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzern B2.8

Bulle2.4

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZERN B · PPG 1.56

BULLE · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Luzern B (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.3%

Bulle (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzern B face Bulle in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzern B a 47% chance, the draw 20% and Bulle 34%, so Luzern B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Luzern B and 2.4 for Bulle (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzern B are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.13 for Bulle. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Luzern B vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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