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Cibalia vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:30

Cibalia

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Karlovac

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 78.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+32.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-16.5%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.8%3-23.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.3%4+-110.1%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.2% 58.8% 1.70 +32.9%

Draw 13.8% 33.3% 3.00 -58.6%

Away win 8.0% 21.7% 4.60 -63.2%

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 45.3% — — —

BTTS 49.5% 48.8% 2.05 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 78% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 2–1✓ 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cibalia2.7

Karlovac0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CIBALIA · PPG 2.00

KARLOVAC · PPG 0.92

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.92) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cibalia (H) 78.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +32.9%

Draw 13.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -58.6%

Karlovac (A) 8.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -63.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cibalia face Karlovac in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cibalia a 78% chance, the draw 14% and Karlovac 8%, so Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Cibalia and 0.8 for Karlovac (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cibalia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.92 for Karlovac. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Cibalia vs Karlovac Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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