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Bijelo Brdo vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:30

Bijelo Brdo

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jarun

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+29.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-14.8%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.0%1-19.0%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-15.2%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-13.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.8% 54.1% 1.85 +29.1%

Draw 20.6% 34.5% 2.90 -40.3%

Away win 9.6% 25.0% 4.00 -61.6%

Over 2.5 42.9% — — —

Over 3.5 22.0% — — —

BTTS 34.6% 47.6% 2.10 -27.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob34.6%

H 70% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.0%

#2 2–0 15.9%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bijelo Brdo1.9

Jarun0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BIJELO BRDO · PPG 1.83

JARUN · PPG 0.54

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.83), Away POOR (0.54) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bijelo Brdo (H) 69.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +29.1%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -40.3%

Jarun (A) 9.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -61.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bijelo Brdo face Jarun in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bijelo Brdo a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Jarun 10%, so Bijelo Brdo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bijelo Brdo and 0.5 for Jarun (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bijelo Brdo are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.54 for Jarun. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Bijelo Brdo vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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