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Hrvace vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Hrvace

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Dubrava Zagreb

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-110.7%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.5%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-18.1%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 58.8% 1.70 -35.9%

Draw 27.1% 30.3% 3.30 -6.3%

Away win 35.2% 23.8% 4.20 +47.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.6% 1.90 -12.2%

Over 3.5 27.7% 32.5% 3.08 -8.8%

BTTS 47.2% 57.1% 1.75 -17.4%

Home O1.5 34.9% 55.6% 1.80 -37.2%

Away O1.5 25.5% 27.9% 3.58 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hrvace1.2

Dubrava Zagreb1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HRVACE · PPG 1.60

DUBRAVA ZAGREB · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hrvace (H) 37.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -35.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.3%

Dubrava Zagreb (A) 35.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +47.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hrvace face Dubrava Zagreb in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hrvace a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Dubrava Zagreb 35%, so Hrvace are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hrvace and 1.0 for Dubrava Zagreb (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hrvace are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Dubrava Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Hrvace vs Dubrava Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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