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Bijelo Brdo vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Bijelo Brdo

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

C. Zmijavci

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-110.1%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.7%2-17.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 39.2% 2.55 +22.7%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Away win 22.7% 37.0% 2.70 -23.2%

Over 2.5 34.0% 50.0% 2.00 -32.0%

Over 3.5 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% 42.0% 2.38 -20.8%

Away O1.5 12.6% 38.5% 2.60 -40.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1✓ 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bijelo Brdo1.2

C. Zmijavci0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BIJELO BRDO · PPG 1.93

C. ZMIJAVCI · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Bijelo Brdo (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +22.7%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

C. Zmijavci (A) 22.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bijelo Brdo face C. Zmijavci in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bijelo Brdo a 48% chance, the draw 29% and C. Zmijavci 23%, so Bijelo Brdo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bijelo Brdo and 0.6 for C. Zmijavci (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bijelo Brdo are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.94 for C. Zmijavci. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Bijelo Brdo vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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