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Real Zaragoza vs Ceuta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:15

Real Zaragoza

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ceuta

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.0%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.7%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.9%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 59.2% 1.69 -21.1%

Draw 26.9% 27.0% 3.70 -0.5%

Away win 26.4% 21.1% 4.75 +25.4%

Over 2.5 43.0% 54.6% 1.83 -21.3%

Over 3.5 22.1% 32.3% 3.10 -31.5%

BTTS 47.5% 57.1% 1.75 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.8%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Zaragoza1.4

Ceuta1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ZARAGOZA · PPG 1.00

CEUTA · PPG 0.78

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Real Zaragoza (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -21.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.5%

Ceuta (A) 26.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Zaragoza face Ceuta in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Zaragoza a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Ceuta 26%, so Real Zaragoza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Zaragoza and 1.0 for Ceuta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Zaragoza are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Ceuta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Real Zaragoza vs Ceuta Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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