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Falkenberg vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Falkenberg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Oddevold

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+19.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.8%0-23.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.0%1-19.3%1-27.2%1-33.7%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.7%3-15.7%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.2%4+-23.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 40.8% 2.45 +9.5%

Draw 22.9% 29.0% 3.45 -12.6%

Away win 32.4% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Over 2.5 65.1% 54.6% 1.83 +19.1%

Over 3.5 43.1% 33.3% 3.00 +29.3%

BTTS 63.4% 62.5% 1.60 +1.4%

Home O1.5 57.2% 46.5% 2.15 +23.0%

Away O1.5 45.8% 43.5% 2.30 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 45% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenberg1.9

Oddevold1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERG · PPG 2.00

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Falkenberg (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.6%

Oddevold (A) 32.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenberg face Oddevold in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenberg a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Oddevold 32%, so Falkenberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Falkenberg and 1.5 for Oddevold (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenberg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Oddevold. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Falkenberg vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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