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Grand-Saconnex vs Vevey Sports Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Grand-Saconnex

PPG 1.15 · HOME

7 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vevey Sports

PPG 0.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.6% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.6%1-13.0%1-21.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.9%2-15.8%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-17.4%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-016.6%4+-119.4%4+-211.4%4+-34.4%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.9% 87.0% 1.15 -3.5%

Draw 9.3% 14.8% 6.75 -37.2%

Away win 6.8% 9.5% 10.50 -28.6%

Over 2.5 87.6% 84.7% 1.18 +3.4%

Over 3.5 73.7% 64.1% 1.56 +15.0%

BTTS 67.5% 65.4% 1.53 +3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 90%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob67.5%

H 84% / xG 3.8-1.2 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.3%

#4 4–0 6.0%

#5 2–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grand-Saconnex3.8

Vevey Sports1.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.6% · O3.5 PROB 73.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAND-SACONNEX · PPG 1.15

VEVEY SPORTS · PPG 0.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.15), Away POOR (0.15) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Grand-Saconnex (H) 83.9%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -3.5%

Draw 9.3%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -37.2%

Vevey Sports (A) 6.8%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grand-Saconnex face Vevey Sports in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grand-Saconnex a 84% chance, the draw 9% and Vevey Sports 7%, so Grand-Saconnex are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Grand-Saconnex and 1.2 for Vevey Sports (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grand-Saconnex are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.15 for Vevey Sports. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 7-0.

Grand-Saconnex vs Vevey Sports Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion Predictions