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Cham vs FC Zurich B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Cham

PPG 1.62 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Zurich B

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.7%0-24.4%0-33.4%0-4+3.5%1 1-02.8%1-16.6%1-27.8%1-36.2%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.5%2-16.0%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.5%3-13.6%3-24.2%3-33.3%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.4%4+-22.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 57.5% 1.74 -48.5%

Draw 19.6% 26.5% 3.78 -25.9%

Away win 50.8% 27.3% 3.66 +85.9%

Over 2.5 78.4% 70.9% 1.41 +10.5%

Over 3.5 59.7% 48.5% 2.06 +23.0%

BTTS 75.6% 70.4% 1.42 +7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob75.6%

A 51% / xG 1.8-2.4 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.6%

#4 1–3 6.2%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cham1.8

FC Zurich B2.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.4% · O3.5 PROB 59.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAM · PPG 1.62

FC ZURICH B · PPG 1.92

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.62), Away GOOD (1.92)

Win probability 1X2

Cham (H) 29.6%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -48.5%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.78 · IMPLIED 26.5% EV -25.9%

FC Zurich B (A) 50.8%

ODDS 3.66 · IMPLIED 27.3% EV +85.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cham face FC Zurich B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cham a 30% chance, the draw 20% and FC Zurich B 51%, so FC Zurich B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cham and 2.4 for FC Zurich B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cham are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.92 for FC Zurich B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +85.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Cham vs FC Zurich B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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