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Breitenrain vs Bruhl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Breitenrain

PPG 1.54 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bruhl

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.2%0-27.9%0-36.7%0-4+7.7%1 1-02.9%1-17.3%1-29.3%1-37.8%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.7%2-14.3%2-25.4%2-34.6%2-4+5.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.1%3-31.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.8% 31.3% 3.20 -49.4%

Draw 17.4% 25.6% 3.90 -32.1%

Away win 66.8% 55.6% 1.80 +20.2%

Over 2.5 71.5% 65.4% 1.53 +9.4%

Over 3.5 50.6% — — —

BTTS 63.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 73%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.6%

A 67% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 0–2 7.9%

#3 1–3✓ 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breitenrain1.2

Bruhl2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BREITENRAIN · PPG 1.54

BRUHL · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.54), Away GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Breitenrain (H) 15.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -49.4%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -32.1%

Bruhl (A) 66.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breitenrain face Bruhl in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breitenrain a 16% chance, the draw 17% and Bruhl 67%, so Bruhl are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Breitenrain and 2.5 for Bruhl (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breitenrain are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.77 for Bruhl. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Breitenrain vs Bruhl Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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