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Banga vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:30

Banga

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Siauliai

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-17.5%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-111.2%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.4%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-14.1%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% — — —

Draw 27.1% — — —

Away win 20.6% — — —

Over 2.5 43.2% — — —

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 46.9% — — —

Home O1.5 43.8% — — —

Away O1.5 12.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga1.5

Siauliai0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.57

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 52.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siauliai (A) 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Siauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Siauliai 21%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Banga and 0.6 for Siauliai (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.75 for Siauliai. This match finished 1-1.

Banga vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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