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Chongqing T. vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.86 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-19.9%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.5%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 27.0% 3.70 +63.9%

Draw 27.9% 28.6% 3.50 -1.4%

Away win 27.9% 53.2% 1.88 -28.5%

Over 2.5 46.7% 55.6% 1.80 -15.9%

Over 3.5 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 37.7% 33.9% 2.95 +11.2%

Away O1.5 25.7% 52.6% 1.90 -30.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing T.1.3

Beijing Guoan1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.86

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing T. (H) 44.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +63.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.4%

Beijing Guoan (A) 27.9%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing T. face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing T. a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Beijing Guoan 28%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chongqing T. and 1.0 for Beijing Guoan (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing T. are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.29 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +63.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Chongqing T. vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions