Today / Austria - Regionalliga - Ost / Union Mauer vs Retz

Union Mauer vs Retz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 33 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Union Mauer

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Retz

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.6%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.7%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 69.4% 1.44 -23.8%

Draw 26.0% 23.1% 4.33 +7.5%

Away win 21.1% 19.0% 5.25 +6.5%

Over 2.5 46.6% 61.7% 1.62 -24.5%

Over 3.5 27.7% 40.7% 2.46 -19.1%

BTTS 47.2% 56.8% 1.76 -16.9%

Home O1.5 45.7% 68.5% 1.46 -33.3%

Away O1.5 17.9% 24.4% 4.10 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Mauer1.5

Retz0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION MAUER · PPG 1.20

RETZ · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

Union Mauer (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +7.5%

Retz (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Mauer face Retz in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Mauer a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Retz 21%, so Union Mauer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Union Mauer and 0.8 for Retz (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Mauer are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.33 for Retz. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Union Mauer vs Retz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Regionalliga - Ost Predictions