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Chengdu vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:35

Chengdu

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Shandong T.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 65% chance

Model probability 76.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+27.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.3%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.7%1-16.4%1-23.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-111.0%4+-25.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 50.5% 1.98 +20.0%

Draw 19.7% 26.3% 3.80 -15.1%

Away win 19.7% 32.3% 3.10 -23.4%

Over 2.5 65.8% 69.0% 1.45 -4.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

BTTS 61.0% 70.4% 1.42 -13.4%

Home O1.5 76.3% 59.9% 1.67 +27.4%

Away O1.5 24.7% 46.5% 2.15 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.0%

H 61% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu2.8

Shandong T.1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU · PPG 2.57

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=60.6%

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +20.0%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -15.1%

Shandong T. (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu face Shandong T. in China - Super League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Shandong T. 20%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Chengdu and 1.0 for Shandong T. (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.50 for Shandong T.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Chengdu vs Shandong T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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