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Ljungskile vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Ljungskile

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Varberg BoIS

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.4%0-28.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.5%2-16.7%2-25.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

Draw 26.7% 29.0% 3.45 -4.7%

Away win 44.4% 39.2% 2.55 +13.2%

Over 2.5 53.3% 54.6% 1.83 -2.5%

Over 3.5 31.1% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

BTTS 55.3% 62.5% 1.60 -11.5%

Home O1.5 29.5% 44.4% 2.25 -20.2%

Away O1.5 43.9% 44.4% 2.25 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 107 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.3%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 0–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ljungskile1.1

Varberg BoIS1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 1.50

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ljungskile (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -15.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.7%

Varberg BoIS (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ljungskile face Varberg BoIS in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ljungskile a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Varberg BoIS 44%, so Varberg BoIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ljungskile and 1.5 for Varberg BoIS (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ljungskile are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Varberg BoIS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Ljungskile vs Varberg BoIS Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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