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Harstad vs Bossekop Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Harstad

PPG 1.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Bossekop

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.9%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.7%1-13.3%1-21.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.1%2-16.1%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-17.5%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-118.5%4+-211.0%4+-34.4%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% — — —

Draw 19.4% — — —

Away win 18.6% — — —

Over 2.5 72.9% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 88.6% — — —

Away O1.5 33.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.4%

H 62% / xG 3.7-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0 6.3%

#4 2–1 6.1%

#5 4–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harstad3.7

Bossekop1.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HARSTAD · PPG 1.33

BOSSEKOP · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Harstad (H) 62.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bossekop (A) 18.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harstad face Bossekop in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harstad a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Bossekop 19%, so Harstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Harstad and 1.2 for Bossekop (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harstad are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Bossekop. This match finished 5-1.

Harstad vs Bossekop Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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