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Fauske/Sprint vs Skjervoy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 13:00

Fauske/Sprint

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Skjervoy

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.6%0-21.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.3%1-14.5%1-24.4%1-32.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.3%2-16.4%2-26.3%2-34.2%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.1%3-16.1%3-26.0%3-34.0%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-18.8%4+-28.7%4+-35.7%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 78.9% — — —

Over 3.5 71.0% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 58.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 53% / xG 2.9-2.0 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.4%

#2 2–2 6.3%

#3 3–1 6.1%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fauske/Sprint2.9

Skjervoy2.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 71.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FAUSKE/SPRINT · PPG 1.33

SKJERVOY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Fauske/Sprint (H) 52.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Skjervoy (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fauske/Sprint face Skjervoy in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fauske/Sprint a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Skjervoy 25%, so Fauske/Sprint are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Fauske/Sprint and 2.0 for Skjervoy (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fauske/Sprint are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Skjervoy. This match finished 3-3.

Fauske/Sprint vs Skjervoy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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