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Qingdao West C. vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 10:00

Qingdao West C.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.5%0-27.4%0-33.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.2%2-17.4%2-25.2%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 44.6% 2.24 -17.3%

Draw 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Away win 37.2% 35.5% 2.82 +4.9%

Over 2.5 54.3% 59.9% 1.67 -9.3%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.2% 2.62 -15.6%

BTTS 55.3% 65.4% 1.53 -15.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 51.3% 1.95 -35.1%

Away O1.5 41.5% 44.4% 2.25 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.3%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao West C.1.2

S. Shenhua1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 1.33

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao West C. (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -17.3%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

S. Shenhua (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao West C. face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao West C. a 37% chance, the draw 26% and S. Shenhua 37%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Qingdao West C. and 1.4 for S. Shenhua (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao West C. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Qingdao West C. vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions