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Peterhead vs Queen of South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Peterhead

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Queen of South

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.6%1-19.6%1-28.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.7%3-14.7%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 29.4% 3.40 +31.9%

Draw 22.6% 28.6% 3.50 -20.9%

Away win 38.7% 52.4% 1.91 -26.1%

Over 2.5 66.4% 58.8% 1.70 +12.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 37.0% 2.70 +20.2%

BTTS 67.1% 63.7% 1.57 +5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.1%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterhead1.7

Queen of South1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERHEAD · PPG 1.50

QUEEN OF SOUTH · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Peterhead (H) 38.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +31.9%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -20.9%

Queen of South (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterhead face Queen of South in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterhead a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Queen of South 39%, so Peterhead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Peterhead and 1.7 for Queen of South (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterhead are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Queen of South. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Peterhead vs Queen of South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions