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Peterhead vs Montrose Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Peterhead

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

UPCOMING

Montrose

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.9%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.9%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 45.5% 2.20 +16.4%

Draw 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

Away win 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 40.0% 2.50 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterhead2.0

Montrose1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERHEAD · PPG 1.45

MONTROSE · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Peterhead (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.4%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.3%

Montrose (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterhead face Montrose in Scotland - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterhead a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Montrose 24%, so Peterhead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Peterhead and 1.0 for Montrose (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterhead are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.79 for Montrose. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +30.4%.

Peterhead vs Montrose Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions