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East Fife vs Ross County Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

East Fife

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ross County

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-112.1%0-26.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.2%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.3%2-17.5%2-23.8%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.7%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 15.4% 6.50 +132.7%

Draw 27.8% 25.6% 3.90 +5.1%

Away win 36.3% 69.4% 1.44 -47.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Over 3.5 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 31.0% 22.2% 4.50 +39.5%

Away O1.5 31.8% 61.7% 1.62 -48.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 13.8%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–0 13.2%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

East Fife1.1

Ross County1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EAST FIFE · PPG 1.51

ROSS COUNTY · PPG 1.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

East Fife (H) 35.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +132.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +5.1%

Ross County (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -47.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

East Fife face Ross County in Scotland - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Fife a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Ross County 36%, so Ross County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for East Fife and 1.0 for Ross County (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Fife are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.93 for Ross County. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +91.9%. This match finished 2-2.

East Fife vs Ross County Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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