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Queen of the South vs Airdrie United Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Queen of the South

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

UPCOMING

Airdrie United

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-112.0%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 40.0% 2.50 +27.5%

Draw 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 24.2% 38.2% 2.62 -22.0%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 46.9% 44.4% 2.25 +5.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 44.4% 2.25 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queen of the South1.6

Airdrie United0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH · PPG 1.15

AIRDRIE UNITED · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Queen of the South (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +27.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Airdrie United (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queen of the South face Airdrie United in Scotland - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queen of the South a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Airdrie United 24%, so Queen of the South are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Queen of the South and 0.9 for Airdrie United (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queen of the South are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.21 for Airdrie United. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Queen of the South vs Airdrie United Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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