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Cove Rangers vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Cove Rangers

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Alloa Athletic

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-112.8%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.7%2-17.1%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 30.8% 3.25 -19.3%

BTTS 48.0% 59.9% 1.67 -19.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.3%

Away O1.5 26.1% 45.5% 2.20 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 36% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cove Rangers1.1

Alloa Athletic0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COVE RANGERS · PPG 1.44

ALLOA ATHLETIC · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cove Rangers (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Alloa Athletic (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cove Rangers face Alloa Athletic in Scotland - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cove Rangers a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Alloa Athletic 36%, so Cove Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cove Rangers and 0.9 for Alloa Athletic (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cove Rangers are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.40 for Alloa Athletic.

Cove Rangers vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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