Today / Australia - Queensland NPL / Rochedale vs Moreton City E.

Rochedale vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Saturday, May 30, 2026, 08:15

Rochedale

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moreton City E.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 84.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.6%0-24.4%0-34.9%0-4+9.6%1 1-01.2%1-14.0%1-26.6%1-37.4%1-4+14.4%2 2-00.9%2-13.0%2-25.0%2-35.5%2-4+10.7%3 3-00.4%3-11.5%3-22.5%3-32.8%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.8%4+-21.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.4% 21.1% 4.75 -13.3%

Draw 19.9% 21.7% 4.60 -5.1%

Away win 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 2.5 73.7% 80.0% 1.25 -7.9%

Over 3.5 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

BTTS 63.4% 76.9% 1.30 -17.6%

Home O1.5 44.1% 46.5% 2.15 -5.2%

Away O1.5 84.6% 80.0% 1.25 +5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob63.4%

A 64% / xG 1.5-3.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.4%

#2 1–2 6.6%

#3 1–4 6.2%

#4 2–3 5.5%

#5 2–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rochedale1.5

Moreton City E.3.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROCHEDALE · PPG 1.20

MORETON CITY E. · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Rochedale (H) 16.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -13.3%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -5.1%

Moreton City E. (A) 63.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rochedale face Moreton City E. in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rochedale a 16% chance, the draw 20% and Moreton City E. 64%, so Moreton City E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rochedale and 3.3 for Moreton City E. (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rochedale are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Moreton City E.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Rochedale vs Moreton City E. Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland NPL Predictions