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Montrose vs Hamilton Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Montrose

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hamilton

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.3%0-25.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.6%1-19.9%1-28.7%1-35.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

Draw 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -20.2%

Away win 42.3% 36.4% 2.75 +16.3%

Over 2.5 64.6% 60.6% 1.65 +6.6%

Over 3.5 42.6% 38.5% 2.60 +10.8%

BTTS 65.6% 66.7% 1.50 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.6%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montrose1.6

Hamilton1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTROSE · PPG 1.63

HAMILTON · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Montrose (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -20.2%

Hamilton (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montrose face Hamilton in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montrose a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Hamilton 42%, so Hamilton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Montrose and 1.8 for Hamilton (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montrose are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Hamilton. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Montrose vs Hamilton Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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