Montrose vs Hamilton Prediction— Scotland - League One

Scotland - League One Regular Season - 34 Links Park· Montrose Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Montrose PPG 1.63

0-2 MISS

Hamilton PPG 1.25

Away· +16.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Montrose face Hamilton in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montrose a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Hamilton 42%, so Hamilton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Montrose and 1.8 for Hamilton (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montrose are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.25 for Hamilton. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.9%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -21.5%

Draw 22.8%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -20.2%

Away 42.3%

Odds: 2.75 EV: +16.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.6% Odds: 1.65 +6.6%

Over 3.5 42.6% Odds: 2.60 +10.8%

BTTS 65.6% Odds: 1.50 -1.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Montrose

1.57

Hamilton

1.75

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-1.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)