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Yanbian Longdin vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:00

Yanbian Longdin

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-19.4%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.6%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.8%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 48.8% 2.05 +1.1%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 23.3% 29.0% 3.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 46.7% 48.8% 2.05 -4.3%

Over 3.5 27.9% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

BTTS 49.5% 55.6% 1.80 -10.9%

Home O1.5 38.7% 46.5% 2.15 -16.8%

Away O1.5 18.6% 32.3% 3.10 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 16.0%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yanbian Longdin1.3

Changchun Yatai0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

YANBIAN LONGDIN · PPG 1.00

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Yanbian Longdin (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Changchun Yatai (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yanbian Longdin face Changchun Yatai in China - League One on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yanbian Longdin a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Changchun Yatai 23%, so Yanbian Longdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Yanbian Longdin and 0.8 for Changchun Yatai (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yanbian Longdin are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Changchun Yatai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Yanbian Longdin vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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