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Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

UPCOMING

Nanjing City

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-112.3%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-17.2%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.6%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 50.0% 2.00 -11.4%

Draw 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Away win 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%

Over 2.5 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 45.5% 2.20 -32.2%

Away O1.5 24.5% 26.7% 3.75 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suzhou Dongwu1.1

Nanjing City0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 1.09

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Suzhou Dongwu (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Nanjing City (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suzhou Dongwu face Nanjing City in China - League One on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suzhou Dongwu a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Nanjing City 28%, so Suzhou Dongwu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Suzhou Dongwu and 0.9 for Nanjing City (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suzhou Dongwu are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.60 for Nanjing City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.4%.

Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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