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Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangzhou E-Power Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

UPCOMING

Guangzhou E-Power

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.7%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.4%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.5%2-17.5%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 35.7% 2.80 -0.9%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 38.6% 44.4% 2.25 -13.2%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 29.9% 30.8% 3.25 -1.7%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 31.2% — — —

Away O1.5 33.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

A 39% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Zhiyun1.1

Guangzhou E-Power1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 2.67

GUANGZHOU E-POWER · PPG 2.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Zhiyun (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

Guangzhou E-Power (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Zhiyun face Guangzhou E-Power in China - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Guangzhou E-Power 39%, so Guangzhou E-Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.2 for Guangzhou E-Power (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 2.30 for Guangzhou E-Power. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Nantong Zhiyun vs Guangzhou E-Power Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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