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Guangxi Hengchen vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

UPCOMING

Hebei Kungfu

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.2%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Draw 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Away win 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

Over 2.5 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Away O1.5 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi Hengchen1.8

Hebei Kungfu0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 2.20

HEBEI KUNGFU · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi Hengchen (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Hebei Kungfu (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi Hengchen face Hebei Kungfu in China - League One on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi Hengchen a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Hebei Kungfu 23%, so Guangxi Hengchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Guangxi Hengchen and 0.8 for Hebei Kungfu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi Hengchen are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.90 for Hebei Kungfu. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Guangxi Hengchen vs Hebei Kungfu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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