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Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Shaanxi Union

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

UPCOMING

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.6%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-18.4%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-17.5%4+-23.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 70.4% 1.42 -17.6%

Draw 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -8.8%

Away win 21.8% 17.4% 5.75 +15.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 63.7% 1.57 +2.1%

Over 3.5 44.8% 42.0% 2.38 +6.6%

BTTS 61.5% 57.8% 1.73 +6.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% — — —

Away O1.5 32.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shaanxi Union2.3

Heilongjiang Lava Spring1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 2.22

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shaanxi Union (H) 58.0%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -17.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.8%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shaanxi Union face Heilongjiang Lava Spring in China - League One on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shaanxi Union a 58% chance, the draw 20% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 22%, so Shaanxi Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Shaanxi Union and 1.0 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shaanxi Union are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.20 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Shaanxi Union vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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